Wednesday, December 2, 2009

DRUG ABUSE AND THE INTERNET


Non-medical use of highly addictive prescription drugs, like Vicodin and Oxycontin, by adolescents is a growing threat. At the same time, the number of pharmacies that illegally sell these drugs without prescription over the internet is rapidly increasing.

This website is a resource for learning more about abuse of prescription drugs and the internet’s role as a supplier of these drugs. You will find information about domestic and international responses to these problems as well as an innovative public-private collaboration that aims to Keep Internet Neighborhoods Safe (KINS). Since 2005, a group of distinguished private businessmen and key government officials have discussed new strategies to curtail illegal internet sales of addictive drugs to young people.

•For more about the problem, click here to read the Policy White Paper.
•For more information on non-medical use of prescription drugs and availability over the internet, please read Drug Strategies' review of the current research literature.


Literature Review


The Internet and Drug Availability

With more than 200 million internet users in the United States and about 117 million individuals going online every week [1] the internet is a vital medium for communication, entertainment, and commerce. The Pew Internet & American Life Project reported in 2005 that 87% of 12-17 year old teenagers, and 73% of all adult Americans use the internet [2]. Just like television, radio and print media, the internet provides the public with information, entertainment, and advertisements. The internet differs from all other media, however, in at least one important way: it enables customers from around the world to shop with relative anonymity in a global marketplace.

About half of all adult Americans take a prescription medication regularly, and one in four have used the internet to learn about prescription medications. The majority of Americans have greater confidence in their local pharmacy than internet-based pharmacies, and only about 4% report having purchased medications online [3].

In addition to being a valuable source of information, communication, and recreation, the internet also is being used to disseminate drug-related information and sell controlled substances without prescriptions. Drug information websites can emphasize the benefits of drug use and provide information on how to manufacture, acquire and use drugs such as marijuana, ecstasy and GHB. According to Gordon, Forman, and Siatkowski, it is possible that use of the internet to acquire drugs may be more prevalent among individuals who are non-dependent, particularly so called “recreational drug users” and substance abusers [4].

A wide range of controlled substances is offered for sale online including stimulants, steroids, sedatives, hallucinogens and marijuana [5]. No prescription websites (NPWs) are online pharmacies that supply consumers with controlled substances without a valid prescription. There are two general categories of NPWs: Retail NPWs directly offer to sell opioid medications without prescription while Portal NPWs provide multiple links to Retail NPWs. Gordon, Forman, and Siatkowski found that the majority of the NPWs identified in monitoring studies conducted since 2003 were classified as Portals.

While legitimate online pharmacies require a valid prescription from the consumer’s physician, there are hundreds of NPWs that sell prescription medications based solely on an online questionnaire, a telephone interview, or a simple online order without any interaction with a physician or other licensed healthcare professional. To assess the relative availability of NPWs versus websites that offered addiction health information (e.g. WebMD), during the first two weeks of August 2004, Gordon, Forman, and Siatkowski. conducted 27 Google searches using a wide variety of opioid search terms. Two search terms - no prescription Vicodin, and no prescription hydrocodone –yielded 80-90% NPWs and no links to addiction health information websites. On the other hand several opioid medications including Fentanyl, Duragesic, buprenorphine, and Subutex – with and without the no prescription prefix – yielded a majority of addiction health information websites and few or no NPWs.

Beyond qualitative examinations of typical NPWs, there has been no systematic study of the content of current Retail NPWs. Forman and Block [6] looked at fifty NPWs by examining links within the top three portal NPWs identified during a search in June 2005. During the coding process, any website found to be a legitimate retailer that only sold medication to customers with a doctor’s prescription was eliminated from consideration and replaced by the next linked website until a total of fifty NPWs were reached. Nearly all (92%) of the NPWs contained an implied legitimacy or credibility claim of some kind. Over 80% of NPWs contained a medical legitimacy claim (82%). Fewer NPWs displayed a retailer legitimacy claim (24%). 88% of NPWs accept payment via one of the major credit cards and over half (52%) mention delivery through a reputable carrier like FedEx or DHL. This provides reassurance that working with credit card and shipping companies is a viable mechanism for identifying ownership of NPWs and potentially suspending their credit card contracts. Approximately half (52%) of NPWs require some kind of online questionnaire to be filled out by the patient; a much smaller percentage offer a telephone consultation, either for free (8%) or fee (20%).

The fluidity and semi-reality of cyberspace are ideally suited to illicit drug transactions, creating a complex challenge for law enforcement, policy makers and the general public [7]. Businesses wishing to circumvent the U.S. Controlled Substances Act may do so by establishing multiple websites, in multiple countries, under multiple online identities. For example, an NPW can be physically located on a computer in Uzbekistan; registered to a business address in Mexico; ship its drugs from Pakistan; deposit payments to a Cayman Island bank - while the owner resides in Miami. Importantly, all links in this online enterprise can be quickly dismantled and resurrected under a new set of virtual identities.


The Global Marketplace and the Controlled Substances Act


The benefits of the internet apply equally to everyone, including individuals who commit unlawful acts such as software piracy, virus releases, identity theft, espionage, the sale of child pornography, illegal weapons, and controlled substances. Online stores can be hosted and registered anywhere in the world, advertising, selling, and delivering products internationally with relative anonymity and convenience – and with little regard for the laws of other countries. The United States Controlled Substances Act (CSA) prohibits the sale of Schedule I drugs such as marijuana, heroin, psilocybin, crack cocaine, and ecstasy and regulates access to Schedule II-V drugs including analgesics, sedatives, stimulants and steroids by requiring a valid prescription from an appropriately licensed healthcare professional [8]. Many countries have drug policies that differ from those of the United States, or have similar laws but less enforcement.

Individuals wishing to sell drugs such as opioid medications to customers in the United States can do so through NPWs registered and operated outside the U.S. Such websites can be identified through internet searches using terms such as Vicodin or no prescription. Internet search engines such as Google enable customers of any age to purchase opioids from an international network of online pharmacies. In 2004, the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse (CASA) [9]identified 147 anchor web sites that offered sales of Schedules II – IV controlled prescription drugs without a prescription during a one-week investigation and only 10 websites that required prescription verification. In a 2006 update to this study, CASA [10] reported that the number of anchor sites selling Schedule II-IV controlled prescription drugs had grown to 165, while the number of sites requiring prescriptions had increased to only 20. Forman [11] published data indicating that the majority of links obtained in a Google search using the term “no prescription codeine” yielded websites offering to sell prescription opiates without a prescription. In a later report, Forman [12]noted that this availability remained consistent over a one-year period, and that websites offering to sell steroids, sedatives, stimulants, ketamine, coca leaves, marijuana, and a wide range of other controlled substances were readily available. In December 2003, Google issued a press statement announcing it would no longer accept advertisements from unlicensed, “rogue” pharmacies though they would continue ranking and including NPWs in search results [13, 14].

Because it is illegal to purchase prescription opioids and other controlled substances without prescription, there is limited data on the actual delivery rate of NPWs. However, the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) conducted an investigation in which they attempted to purchase prescription drugs without a prescription. In total, the GAO investigators placed 90 orders for prescription drugs without prescription; of these orders 45 (50%) were filled. The GAO purchased a wide range of prescription medications, including 11 purchases of opioids. Of the 11 attempted purchases of opioid medications (including hydrocodone and oxycodone), 10 (94%) were delivered[15].

On July 30, 1999, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Ivan Fong testified before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Commerce Committee, United States House of Representatives, that “…online pharmacies allow consumers to purchase prescription drugs without any pretense of a prescription” and that these websites introduce “potential risks to public health and safety” [16]. A week later the White House issued Executive Order 13133 [17] creating the “Working Group on Unlawful Conduct on the Internet” leading to the publication of “The Electronic Frontier[18]. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) subsequently published guidance [19] which specified fourconditions under which legal prescriptions can be issued over the internet: a) A patient presents a medical complaint; b) A medical history is obtained; c) A physical examination is performed; and d) Some logical connection exists between the medical complaint, the medical history, the physical examination, and the drug prescribed. Prescriptions based on telephone interviews or online questionnaires are not considered valid. In support of these guidelines, the American Medical Association subsequently issued guidance for physicians on internet prescribing that largely parallels the DEA’s position [20].


Enforcement

Since 2001, the sale of controlled substances over the internet has been cited in U.S. Justice Department reports [21, 22, 23] and has led to criminal investigations for non-prescription drugs such as ecstasy, gamma hydroxyl butyrate (GHB) and methamphetamines, [24, 25, 26, 27] and the illicit sale of prescription drugs online [28, 29, 30, 31, 32]. Similarly, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has provided testimony [33], and reports [34, 35, 36, 37] on the risks of online prescription practices and recently, in conjunction with U.S. Customs, the FDA participated in an investigation of illicit prescription drug sales originating overseas [38]. On March 1, 2004, the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) issued the 2004 National Drug Control Strategy Update [39]which for the first time described plans to monitor illicit internet drug offers. Concurrent with the issuance of this strategy update, ONDCP issued a press release [40] entitled “U.S. Drug Prevention, Treatment, Enforcement Agencies Take on ‘Doctor Shoppers,’ ‘Pill Mills’” and a fact sheet entitled“Reducing Prescription Drug Abuse”[41] both of which announce initiatives to stop illicit online prescription drug sales. Subsequently in 2005 and 2006 updates to the national drug control strategy, the ONDCP announced that the focus of its efforts in halting prescription drug abuse would be in preventing the diversion of prescription drug through support of state-level Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs [42, 43].

The issue of the abuse of prescription drugs and their sale over the internet has also come under increasing scrutiny from the United Nations International Narcotics Control Board (INCB). In recent years, the INCB’s annual reports have continually noted the importance of multinational efforts for stopping the diversion of prescription drugs via the internet [44, 45]. In response, in late 2004 and early 2005, the INCB convened two meetings of experts to discuss possible solutions for the international challenge of shutting down illegal internet pharmacies [46, 47]. Later in 2005, the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs passed a resolution calling for international cooperation between member nations in order to end illegal internet drug sales [48]. In one of its strongest warnings to date on the subject, the INCB’s most recent 2006 annual report cautioned that the abuse and trafficking of prescription drugs will soon surpass illicit drug abuse [49]. Moreover, the report states that the illegal sale of prescription drugs via the internet continues “unabated,” and it recommends specific actions to be undertaken both by member country governments and by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in order to halt these sales [50].

Forman and Block identified four potential “choke points” for NPW enforcement efforts: a) search engines that list NPWs when searches are conducted; b) credit card companies with which NPWs and their customers have accounts; c) package delivery companies; and d) internet service providers (ISP) where NPWs files are hosted [6].


Popular Media

Because public awareness about the availability of opioid medications without a prescription is increased by media reports, it is instructive to consider media coverage of NPWs. Beginning in the fall of 2003, the popular press began describing - and publicizing - the illicit sale of prescription drugs over the internet. The earliest press report on NPWs that we found was published on October 18, 2003, in the New York Times[51] in an article describing a joint DEA/FDA taskforce targeting “rogue online pharmacies” that sold prescription drugs without a prescription. Two days later theWashington Post [52] released a five-part series detailing the results of a one-year investigation into the availability of prescription drugs without a prescription. A month after the Washington Post series, USA Today [53] reported on the “uncontrolled sale of controlled substances” over the internet and then, in December 2003, news coverage about NPWs became widespread with the Los Angeles Times [54], Philadelphia Daily News [55], Boston Herald [56], Miami Herald [57], Denver Post [58],San Jose Mercury News [59], and the Chicago Tribune [60] all publishing stories about the online availability of controlled substances without a prescription. Additional media coverage has been given to police investigations of operators of large internet pharmacies [61, 62, 63, 64]. More recently, the Partnership for a Drug Free America launched an aggressive media campaign against the abuse of prescription drugs in spring of 2006 [65].


Adolescent Abuse of Prescription Drugs

In its 18th annual national study of teen substance use, the Partnership for a Drug-Free America reported in 2006 that almost one in five adolescents (19%) has abused prescription medications, including Oxycontin and Vicodin [66]. This proportion is equal or higher than adolescent abuse of cocaine/crack, ecstasy, methamphetamine, LSD, and heroin. Thirty-seven percent of adolescents said they have close friends who have abused prescription painkillers such as Vicodin, OxyContin, and Tylox, while 29% report the same about Ritalin and Adderall. According to the study, almost half of all teens believe that getting high from prescription medications is “much safer” than street drugs, and 3 out of 10 teens see nothing wrong with abusing prescription medicines once in a while, and they believe that prescription drugs are not addictive.

Monitoring the Future, another national annual survey of teen drug use conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan, has also recorded high levels of prescription drug abuse [67]. In 2006, survey results indicated that the annual prevalence rates of Oxycontin use among 8th and 10th graders reached 2.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. These are the highest observed levels to date. In contrast, the 2005 rates for 8th and 10th graders were 1.8 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Vicodin usage also has a high prevalence rate, and its annual prevalence among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders was 3 percent, 7 percent, and 9.7 percent, respectively. This marked an increase from the rates of 2.6 percent, 5.9 percent and 9.5 percent for 8th, 10th and 12th graders, respectively, in 2005.

Finally, the National Survey on Drug Use and Health continues to report high levels of abuse of psychotherapeutic drugs [68]. Though slight decreases were reported in the usage of prescription-type psychotherapeutics in comparison to 2004, current usage levels still remain well above levels first reported in 2002 when the survey was significantly revised. In 2005, 12 percent of youths ages 12-17 said they had tried psychotherapeutics for non-medical use at least once in their lifetime, including 1.1 percent reporting using Oxycontin, 3.0 percent using tranquilizers, 4.6 percent using Vicodin, Lortab or Lorcet, 1.7 percent using hydrocodone, and 1.8 percent using codeine. Previously from 2003-2004, lifetime use of Oxycontin had risen from 1.0 to 1.2 percent, lifetime use of Vicodin, Lortab or Lorcet had risen from 4.5 to 5.1 percent, lifetime use of hydrocodone had risen from 1.6 to 1.7 percent, and codeine lifetime use had remained constant at 2.1 percent [69].


Research on Internet Prescription Opioids

In contrast with the many reports in the law enforcement literature and popular press, there are few publications in the public health or medical literature concerning the availability of prescription opioids over the internet. In a Medline search conducted on June 28, 2004 using combinations of terms including “online,” “opioids,” “internet,” and “narcotics” only one publication addressing the availability of prescription opioids over the internet was found: the principal investigator’s (Forman 2003) preliminary research report. Since then the author collaborated in the production of several research articles on the sale of prescription drugs over the internet [70, 71]. This, and other searches conducted using Medline and PsychINFO, identified general articles about online pharmacy prescribing practices [72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77], the internet as a source of drug information [78, 79, 80, 81,82, 83, 84, 85], and the online sale of sexual performance enhancement drugs [86, 87, 88], but no articles were found about websites selling prescription opioids without a prescription. These reviews did find an article in a Swedish language journal describing the online sale of hallucinogenic mushrooms [89], a case report about a patient who became dependent on opium poppies that were purchased online [90], and a case report about a patient who overdosed on diet pills (phentermine) obtained online [91].

The European Union has funded a project called the Psychonaut 2002 Project which is searching the Internet for drug-related websites using a controlled search methodology (psychonaut2002.org). Its primary aim is to collect and analyze the information available on these websites, and to develop an Early Warning System for professionals providing information and suggestions concerning the emerging drug markets, new drugs and new trends in drug use. This is a multi-site research project involving 15 centers from nine European countries and to date has analyzed more than 4.000 sites in 8 languages. Investigators in this project have published multiple articles about the availability of controlled substances on the internet [92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98] report having one manuscript under review [99], and have presented their findings at two international scientific conferences [100, 101].

In addition, there is an overall lack of information about who is using the internet to obtain NPOs. In the study conducted by Gordon, Forman, and Siatkowski, one hundred adult drug dependent inpatients in a private, residential treatment program participated in a semi-structured interview from 2003 to 2004 regarding how they obtained their drugs. Twenty-nine percent reported knowledge of the internet as a source of drugs and 11% reported they had used the internet either to buy drugs or locate a drug dealer. Among the respondents who knew the internet was a drug source, reasons given for not using it were: it was too expensive; the desired drug could not be obtained (e.g. cocaine); and fear of being identified by authorities or other family members using the same computer. The results of this preliminary study suggest that the internet is becoming an increasingly important source of controlled substances for some addicted individuals.


Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Teens and Technology

Today’s American teens live in a world enveloped by communications technologies; the internet and cell phones have become a central force that fuels the rhythm of daily life.

The number of teenagers using the internet has grown 24% in the past four years and 87% of those between the ages of 12 and 17 are online. Compared to four years ago, teens’ use of the internet has intensified and broadened as they log on more often and do more things when they are online.

Among other things, there has been significant growth over the past four years in the number of teens who play games on the internet, get news, shop online, and get health information.

Not only has the number of users increased, but also the variety of technologies that teens use to support their communication, research, and entertainment desires has grown.

These technologies enable a variety of methods and channels by which youth can communicate with one another as well as with their parents and other authorities. Email, once the cutting edge “killer app,” is losing its privileged place among many teens as they express preferences for instant messaging (IM) and text messaging as ways to connect with their friends.

In focus groups, teens described their new environment. To them, email is increasingly seen as a tool for communicating with “adults” such as teachers, institutions like schools, and as a way to convey lengthy and detailed information to large groups. Meanwhile, IM is used for everyday conversations with multiple friends that range from casual to more serious and private exchanges.

It is also used as a place of personal expression. Through buddy icons or other customization of the look and feel of IM communications, teens can express and differentiate themselves. Other instant messaging tools allow for the posting of personal profiles, or even “away” messages, durable signals posted when a user is away from the computer but wishes to remain connected to their IM network.

What Teens Do Online

Summary of Findings

Friday, October 9, 2009

Holyoke chief tries to lead chorus against the court


Chief Anthony R. Scott took to the radio over a recent case.Chief Anthony R. Scott took to the radio over a recent case. (Suzanne Kreiter/Globe Staff)
By Sarah Schweitzer
Globe Staff / July 10, 2009

HOLYOKE - Seven years ago, Julius Taylor was arrested on drug possession charges, then released on the promise that he’d show up in court. The judge never saw him again. Five years later, Taylor was arrested on charges of destruction of property and disorderly conduct. Again he was released and again, he didn’t show in court. This spring, confronted by police on a domestic violence call, the 29-year-old threw himself at officers, kicking one in the face.

“What does it take to keep an individual such as this behind bars?’’ the city’s outraged police chief, Anthony R. Scott, wrote in an invective fired off to the local newspaper.

Fed up with judges who set alleged criminals free, Scott has launched a one-man crusade against what he says is a broken judicial system. He has called for picketing of courthouses, proposed legislation to put judges’ names on ballots every six years, and created a website listing judicial decisions that he deems bad.

His campaign gives voice to an age-old gripe in police departments, that criminals arrested at great expense and danger to strained police departments routinely slip through the cracks once they reach the court system. But most police officials have confined their complaints to their own ranks. Scott, who seems to relish raising the hackles of the establishment, says someone should take bold action.

“There are judges who would like to dig a hole under the nearest jail and put me in it,’’ Scott said. “But I am not concerned about that. To me, this is a public safety issue.’’

In this city of 40,000 residents, among the poorest communities in the state, where the True Deliverance Church across from City Hall is boarded up and hard-worn downtown streets may have an air of danger, Scott’s message resonates with some residents.

The judges “are sending a bad message that people can get away with crime,’’ said Christine Rowinski, a Holyoke native. “We are disarming the police’s efforts at a time when their resources are stretched.’’

But popular as the message might be on the streets, some observers say it betrays a bald transgression.

“This is driven by the personality of someone who thinks he should have more control over judicial decisions, when the Constitution makes clear that the judiciary is independent,’’ said William Teahan Jr., a retired Springfield district court judge of 20 years. “It’s not naivete by the chief as much as a calculated effort to get higher bail set because he thinks it should be higher.’’

Scott became Holyoke’s police chief in 2001, the first chief picked from outside the department. At the time, Holyoke was beset by nightly drive-by shootings, and a spiraling homicide rate. Scott, a native of New Orleans who had served 20 years on that police force before becoming police chief in Athol and later Rock Island, Ill., was seen as the man who could clamp down.

From the beginning, he made clear his conservative, tough-on-crime stance and launched large-scale police sweeps that rounded up wanted criminals. Today the number of crimes is 17 percent lower than when Scott took the job, while violent crime has fluctuated and returned to 2001 levels, according to data provided by the city.

Scott has been a fixture on local television, sporting suspenders and lobbing assaults at the judiciary. The attacks are not surprising, some say, coming from a man comfortable with unconventional roles: He is an African-American with deep ties to the Republican Party (his office shelves are lined with photographs of President Bush and other Republican leaders), a lifelong cop who touts his college degree in business administration - not his many credits in criminal justice - and a Southerner living in New England.

Some say that while Scott’s concern about the judiciary has merit, his methods are heavy-handed.

“I agree with the message, but I wonder if he is taking the best tack,’’ said Kevin Jourdain, a city councilor. “In the end, I’m not sure how effective he’ll be if he is the only voice crying out in the wilderness.’’

Scott said that a number of police chiefs are backing him but he declined to name them, and so far, he is not getting public support from other chiefs.

“We do in many instances arrest the same people for crimes, and that’s frustrating . . . but I wouldn’t place blame on the judges,’’ said Police Chief John Romero of Lawrence. “If I had to lay blame, it’s with the system in general.’’

Lowell Police Superintendent Kenneth Lavalle said judges have few options with repeat offenders because of jail overcrowding. “It’s easy to second-guess them, but I am sure those calls are not easy.’’

Scott has a retort to the overcrowding problem: creative sentencing. Rather than jail shoplifters, for example, judges could sentence them to stand in stockades in malls, where a sign would read “I am a thief,’’ he said.

Scott’s criticism of the judiciary reached a new peak recently after the first homicide in Holyoke in more than a year. The victim, Luis Fernandez, 43, had failed to appear for court hearings on a previous arrest and then, on June 21, was shot with a 45-caliber semiautomatic pistol during a drug deal gone bad. Shortly before he died, Fernandez refused to tell officers who had shot him, saying he would take care of the problem himself.

“If the judges had exercised a modicum of concern, this individual would have been in jail instead of conducting his drug business on the street,’’ Scott said.

Afterward, Scott took to the radio, urging people to picket courthouses in the Holyoke area and Boston. He says he had several dozen residents ready to join him in the picketing. Two days later, Scott called off the pickets after he learned that a state statute bars picketing of courthouses intended to influence a judge.

The American Civil Liberties Union has declined to challenge the law since a US Supreme Court decision in 1965 upheld a Louisiana statute virtually identical to Massachusetts’. Scott is unbowed. He says the law violates the First Amendment and is seeking a lawyer to challenge its constitutionality.

Should Scott prevail, one resident who won’t be joining him in the picketing is Miguel Vargas. The 35-year-old Holyoke resident, who works as a personal caretaker, said judges are doing a fine job.

Scott “shouldn’t be trying to change bail,’’ Vargas said as bought roast pork at the Holyoke Oasis. “People should have bail because they have families and they need to support their families. If they are found guilty, then they should go to jail. But they should have bail because if they’re in jail, they can’t get a lawyer, they can’t hustle.’’

Obama, the Nobel Prize and What It All Means

The stunning choice of President Obama as the winner of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize -- announced early this morning in Oslo -- comes at a critical juncture both domestically and internationally for his administration and has the potential to give him a political boost in each arena moving forward.

Just one week ago, Obama's image took a blow -- how big or small depends largely on where you stand on the partisan spectrum -- when, just hours after he traveled to Copenhagen to personally make the case for Chicago to host the 2016 Olympics, his hometown was the first city eliminated in the International Olympic Committee's vote.

The peace prize should quickly erase the memory of that embarrassment for Obama and restore his image as a respected player on the world stage in the eyes of the international community.

(In truth, Obama's numbers have never seriously lagged in foreign countries; a September "Transatlantic Trends" poll sponsored by the German Marshall fund found that 77 percent of the members of the European Union and Turkey supported the president's handling of international affairs.)

On the domestic front, Obama's new image as a Nobel Peace Prize winner will most directly affect the ongoing debate over troop levels in Afghanistan.

The issue has, to date, badly divided Obama's own party as well as the American public. In a Pew poll conducted late last month, 50 percent favored keeping U.S. troops in the country while 43 percent voiced support for removing all troops. Obama has not made any formal decision on next steps in the country but reports suggest that he will not reduce the number of U.S. troops, a decision that will not please many in the liberal wing of his party.

Winning the Nobel Prize will allow Obama to go to his divided Democratic caucus and make the case far more forcefully that the time is now to stay united behind him on Afghanistan. It isn't a silver bullet solution as many liberal members have strongly held beliefs on the issue that aren't likely to change simply because Obama is a Nobel Prize winner, but for many who are on the fence, the prize may be just the thing that pushes them onto Obama's side.

In terms of health care, the other major legislative fight roiling Congress at the moment, the impact (if any) is far less clear. While winning such a prestigious prize will surely create a bit of momentum for Obama within the halls of Congress, it's hard to see this as a game-changer in a legislative fight that has been going on for so many months and where the battle lines are so clearly drawn.

The political downside of winning the prize? Expect some Republicans -- and, particularly, conservative talk show hosts on television and radio -- to focus on the idea that Obama is such a beloved figure on the world stage because he has essentially capitulated to the demands of the international community.

Remember that when President Obama was greeted with huge crowds and limitless adoration as he traveled through Europe as a candidate, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was able to turn his international popularity against him, raising questions about whether Obama was ready to stand up for America's interests. Although this event lacks the same campaign context, the same arguments will likely be made by some within the GOP.

"His winning the Nobel Peace Prize is very bad for Obama politically," said Republican consultant Curt Anderson. "It will completely reinforce the notion that he is all flash and no substance, all style, and more popular in Europe than in America."

The Democratic National Committee is pushing back -- hard -- against attacks from Republicans about the prize. "The Republican Party has thrown in its lot with the terrorists -- the Taliban and Hamas this morning -- in criticizing the President for receiving the Nobel Peace prize," said DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse.

In politics, it is often the unexpected event that packs the most punch. And, the president winning the Nobel Peace Prize after just nine months in office qualifies as among the more unexpected turns of events in recent political history. It's clear that the honor should strengthen Obama's hand within his own party in the short-term but how long that newfound political capital lasts -- and whether it has any impact on his outreach to Republicans -- remains to be seen.

Have ideas of your own on what the Nobel Prize means for Obama's political prospects? The comments section awaits.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Many who were active online during the campaign expect to remain involved with the Obama Administration and promote his policies to others

Voters expect that the level of public engagement they experienced with Barack Obama during

the campaign, much of it occurring online, will continue into the early period of his new

administration. A majority of Obama voters expect to carry on efforts to support his policies and

try to persuade others to back his initiatives in the coming year; a substantial number expect to

hear directly from Obama and his team; and a notable cohort say they have followed the

transition online.

These are the key findings of a new survey about public interest in the presidential transition

process and voters’ intentions to carry on the national conversation about the incoming

administration:

62% of Obama voters expect that they will ask others to support the policies of the

new administration over the next year. Among Obama voters who were engaged

online during the campaign, 25% expect to support the administration’s agenda by

reaching out to others online.

46% of Obama voters and 33% of McCain voters expect to hear directly from their

candidate or party leaders over the next year. Fully 51% of online Obama supporters

expect some kind of ongoing communication from the new administration—34% of

Obama-supporting email users expect email communication, 37% of social network

site users expect SNS updates, and 11% of phone texters expect to receive text

messages from the new administration.

27% of wired Obama voters have gone online to learn about or get involved with the

presidential transition process.1 Nine percent of online McCain voters have visited

websites hoping to rebuild the GOP or elect conservative candidates in the future.

Wired Obama Voters and the Online Transition

Percentage of online Obama voters (i.e. those who use the internet

and voted for Obama on election day) within each group who have

visited a website affiliated with the presidential transition or gone

online to discuss or get information about the transition process

All online Obama voters 27%

Sex

Men 28%

Women 25

Race/Ethnicity

White (non-Hispanic) 25%

Black (non-Hispanic) 31

English-speaking Hispanics **

Education

High school grad 27%

Some college 28

College grad 27

Annual Household Income

Less than $30,000 26%

$30,000-$49,999 21

$50,000-$74,999 32

$75,000 or more 33

Age

18-29 33%*

30-49 31

50-64 19

65+ 9*

Online Campaign Engagement

Online political user 33%

Go online, not online political user 4

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project 2008 Post-Election Survey, Novem